Corners and other markets

Beyond goals, football offers markets on the events that lead up to them. Corners are the most established, and FinalSkore models them directly.

Corner markets

A corner is awarded when the defending team last touches a ball that crosses its own goal line. Books offer:

• Total corners over/under — e.g. over 9.5 corners for the match.
• Corner handicap — one team to win the corner count by a margin.
• Team corners — over/under for one side's corners only.

Corners are a useful read because they're a proxy for territorial pressure — a team that attacks relentlessly down the wings racks them up even without scoring. They're also more frequent than goals, so the samples are larger and a little less noisy. FinalSkore predicts corners from each team's historical corner averages (the home/away corner figures, HC and AC), the same idea as a goals model applied to a different event.

Other common markets

• Cards / bookings — over/under on yellow and red cards, driven by the referee and the fixture's intensity.
• Correct score — naming the exact final score; very long odds, very low hit rate.
• Half-time / full-time and first goalscorer — fun, but carry a high bookmaker margin.

Niche markets are entertaining, but the margin baked into them is usually fatter than on the main goal and handicap lines. Know what you're paying.